Technological advancements seem to take longer than anyone expected, and then they suddenly blossom. Computers were a toy for enthusiasts for the 1970s and 1980s, but with the founding of the Internet in 1990, they suddenly took off. Same for 3d printers. I remember looking at them at Fry's more than a decade ago. They were relatively inexpensive and I thought about buying one. But what would I do with it? Sure, I could print some interesting plastic stuff, but nothing useable. I could see how it would be useful for prototyping, but not much else. I passed.
3D printers had one overwhelming advantage for prototyping. They were additive as opposed to subtractive. The alternative were lathes or machining -- both subtractive. Think of it like carving with a knife. You start with a block of wood larger than you need and then you whittle off chunks until you pare it down to the finished product. It created waste of material as you pared down the block added unneeded expense to the production process.
Problem is that with a subtractive process you can never get the insides of the block configured. You can make a baseball bat, but not a chest of drawers.
As technology got more and more complex, it became clear an additive process was needed and for the market to enlarge, we needed to build finished goods, not just prototypes.
I could see the problem for the industry sitting in front of me at Fry's. I didn't buy because I didn't have enough potential use to justify the expense. If you wanted to see what your invention really looked like in 3D, a 3D printer was essential. But how many units could the industry sell to this limited market? So 3D printers remained an extremely small niche market. Until now.
What happened?
Three things.
1. 3D printers were developed using lots more print media.
2. 3D printers got a lot bigger.
3. 3D printers got robust.
A quick example, illustrating all 3. ICON is building 100 houses in near Austin, Texas using 3D printing. Their printers print with concrete, are weigh 3,000 pounds and are capable of printing a house a day onsite. They are robust enough to withstand weather and being moved daily. Some of the insides of the houses have to be finished manually, but the concrete shell and roof are done in a day. Wiring and plumbing are included in the walls but have to be connected to appliances in the cabinets (at least for now).
The Chicon House, pictured above and built in Austin in 2018. Construction supposedly cost $4,000 and took 24 hours.
The houses cost more than advertised and take longer to build to a finished state than their glossy brochures would lead you to believe. But the houses are already less expensive and take far less time to build than conventionally built homes. And the industry is in its infancy. Competition, learning and scale will reduce costs at an accelerating pace.
3D printers can print with more than concrete.
Metal 3D printing provides a proven menu of benefits to a growing number of industries. Not only can you create parts with shapes and internal structures that could not be cast or otherwise machined, but metal 3D printing can create parts within parts so engineers can design a complex assembly in one piece. This saves the time and labor of assembling parts or performing processes, such as welding, and increases efficiency of the final part.
You can now print complicated electrical circuits.
Previously, it was a challenge to 3D print with copper because of the metal’s reflectivity and high heat conductivity, but advances in printers and materials have largely met those early challenges. Today, 3D printed copper propulsion systems send rockets into space, 3D printed copper heat sinks keep CPUs cool, and 3D printed copper coils boost electric motor performance.
It's possible to print with multiple metals in the same printing process. Researchers are adding the ability to print with different materials as industry ramps up requirements. Blending metals allows the product to be created without fasteners. Simply fuse the printed metals together. The bond is seamless and much stronger than using screws or rivets.
Currently there are limitations to combinations that can be used. But these are coming down. Printers have been developed that can print metals without heat. You can handle immediately after printing. The list of things that are now possible with 3D printing is expanding daily.
This was just in time, as the just-in-time global manufacturing process has been disrupted by COVID-19. US and European manufacturers are beginning to bring manufacturing home. 3D printing and robotics are going to be key in not raising prices too high. 3D printing has barely begun to blossom. So far, 3D printing has only started to take off in markets like housing where it isn't possible to build abroad and tech where time certainty is more important than price.
But once the media expand, the size and robustness start to manifest, 3D printing is going to blossom. Again as with most disruptive tech don't make single large bets. Make smaller, more frequent bets. Companies will leapfrog competitors and what looks like a sure thing one day will be passe the next. Better to spread the risk. The winners will more than offset the losers.
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